THE INH£RITANCE TRAP
Where climate change, debt and childhood collide
Children are living with the consequences of crises they did not create. Many of the countries most vulnerable to climate change have contributed least to the emissions driving it, yet face some of the greatest constraints on their ability to respond. Where high climate vulnerability converges with heavy debt burdens, the result can be a profound imbalance: countries facing some of the greatest investment needs have the least fiscal room to meet them.
This report examines the relationship between climate vulnerability, debt pressure and childhood development, and shows how their convergence can erode the systems children rely on to survive, learn and thrive. We have named this collision of crises and childhood the Inheritance Trap.
We have named this collision of crises and childhood the Inheritance Trap: a cycle in which climate vulnerability and debt pressure can reinforce each other, eroding the systems children need to survive, grow, learn and thrive.
Part 1
Part 1 explains how the Inheritance Trap works. It shows how climate shocks can weaken the infrastructure of childhood, how debt pressure crowds out investment, and why the costs of delay are fundamentally different for children whose development depends on time-sensitive investments in health, education, nutrition and protection.
Part 2
Part 2 introduces the Inheritance Trap Index, developed by World Vision UK to identify the countries where climate vulnerability, debt pressure and child-related fiscal risk overlap, with climate finance analysed alongside.
Part 3
Part 3 brings the Trap to life through country case studies from Kenya, Laos and Bangladesh. These illustrate how the same underlying dynamics play out in different contexts, revealing the ways climate pressure, constrained fiscal space and debt-financed responses interact.
Part 4
Part 4 examines where the Trap remains hidden. It explores how conventional measures of vulnerability, debt and climate finance can underestimate risks in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), leaving some of the most exposed children partially invisible within global systems.
Part 5
Part 5 sets out practical ways to disrupt the cycle. It argues that preventing future liabilities, expanding fiscal space, investing in resilience and protecting investment in children are not separate agendas, but connected responses to the same challenge.
Part 6
Part 6 concludes with recommendations for governments, creditors, international financial institutions and climate-finance providers on how to ensure today’s responses to climate and debt pressures do not become tomorrow’s inheritance for children. Further information on methodology and data can then be found in the Annex.
Ultimately, this report argues that children are already living at the intersection of crises they did not create. The question is whether today’s decisions will continue to pass costs and constraints forward, or help break the cycle before another generation inherits them.