Part 2
Mapping Children’s Exposure to the Inheritance Trap
The Inheritance Trap is not confined to a small number of countries facing acute crisis. Rather, it exists across a spectrum of exposure, affecting countries at different stages of vulnerability and shaping the prospects of hundreds of millions of children.
The scale of the trap
An estimated 839 million children live in the 55 countries rated Very High, High or Elevated – more than one-third of the world’s children. These figures describe the number of children living in countries where the three pressures measured by the Index overlap most strongly; they do not imply that every child experiences those pressures in the same way.
CHILDREN
more than one-third of the world’s children are living in countries most exposed to the Inheritance Trap
MAPPING THE INHERITANCE TRAP
Five countries fall into the Very High category: Eritrea, Laos, Malawi, South Sudan and Sudan. Together, they are home to 44 million children. All five are assessed as being at high risk of debt distress or sovereign stress, or already in debt distress.
The pattern within these countries shows why their position cannot be attributed to one pressure alone. In Laos and Malawi, net interest on public debt is greater than combined government spending on health, education and social protection. In South Sudan and Sudan, more than nine in ten children are exposed to three or more climate hazards. Eritrea is rated Very High on all three pillars, although its overall result is marked Limited evidence because fewer than six indicators are available.
A further 17 countries are rated High, and 33 Elevated. The 22 countries in the Very High and High categories are home to 451 million children; adding the Elevated group brings the total to 839 million.22
Where the trap is deepest
The Index shows a pronounced regional concentration. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 38 of the 55 countries in the Very High, High and Elevated categories. These countries are home to 549 million children – almost two-thirds of all children living in countries in the three highest categories.
Across the 47 sub-Saharan African countries included in the Index, nine in ten children live in a country rated Very High, High or Elevated. The concentration remains marked at the top of the Index: 56% of children living in Very High and High countries are in sub-Saharan Africa.
South Asia has only four countries in the three highest categories, but their large child populations mean they account for a further 195 million children. Four countries in the Middle East and North Africa account for 83 million children. Six countries in East Asia and the Pacific account for 7 million, while three in Latin America and the Caribbean account for 5 million. No country in Europe and Central Asia falls within the three highest categories.
Children living in the Inheritance Trap, by region
Children living in the Inheritance Trap, by region
Small island developing states also appear across the higher categories. Of the 26 small island developing states included in the Index, 10 are rated Very High, High or Elevated. They include Tuvalu, Tonga, Vanuatu, Micronesia and Grenada.
WhAT THE INDEX REVEALS
The Index does not identify a single pathway into the Inheritance Trap. Instead, it shows how climate exposure, debt pressure and vulnerability affecting children can accumulate, and how their overlap is especially pronounced in some countries.
Reading the findings
The Inheritance Trap Index is a comparative tool, not a measure of fixed harm. Its categories show where countries sit relative to one another in this edition, and small differences in scores should not be treated as meaningful distinctions. The Index uses national-level data and cannot represent differences within countries or the experiences of individual children.
Taken together, the findings show where climate vulnerability, debt pressure and risks to children most clearly converge. They do not claim that one pressure has caused another. Rather, they identify the countries and regions where overlapping pressures are greatest – and where policy responses will need to address climate resilience, debt and investment in children together.
Banner Image: The aftermath of flash flooding in Nepal in 2026. © 2026 Annila Harris/ World Vision